Duration Matters More Than Magnitude

A -25% correction that recovers in 1 year ≠ a -25% that stays down for 4 years. See how the length of pain reshapes your actual returns.

Annual % in normal years
Depth of the crash (e.g., -25%)
When does crash occur?
Years in the hole
Complete journey in years

The Path: How Duration Changes Everything

Timeline: When You're Down, When You Recover, When You Win

How Duration Changes Returns (Fixed -25% Correction in Year 3)

🎯 The Duration Principle

📚 Companion research & tools

Companion Calculator
HOLD vs INFUSE vs SIP
Same crash, three different actions. Who wins by year 10?
Companion Calculator
Crash Recovery Calculator
Sweep across crash depths to find the most rewarding entry.
Calculator
Volatility: Hope for New Investors
Why corrections gift later entrants an advantage. SIP through a volatile cycle.
Anchor Paper
Time, Not Depth
Why duration drives the recovery tax. The essay companion to this calculator, same thesis in narrative form. Compounding Lab Paper 6.
Research Paper
The Forced Bounce
Why markets must overshoot after crashes. The math says recovery duration, rather than luck, determines the bounce rate.
Research Paper
The Coil Principle™
The longer the coil, the more units you accumulate. Duration is the variable that compounds the surge.
Research Paper
The Behavior Tax
Duration of fear maps directly to duration of "stay-out". The behavioural cost of long recoveries.
Research Paper
The 50-Day Phenomenon
78% of best days fall within drawdowns. Long durations cluster more best days you must own.
Research Paper
The Decade That Ends Everything
Long stay-down periods near retirement destroy the final-decade compounding. Duration matters most at the end.